What Credit Week Told Us About the Future of Consumer Affordability
Credit Week 2026 brought together lenders, regulators, risk leaders and technology providers to explore the forces reshaping consumer credit. Discussions spanned regulatory reform, AI innovation and the future of risk management, but one message resonated throughout the event: uncertainty is becoming an increasingly prominent feature of the lending landscape.
Against this backdrop, TransUnion's Head of Research and Consulting, James O'Donnell, presented How Economic Pressure is Reshaping Consumer Affordability. The session examined how changing economic conditions are influencing household finances, borrowing behaviours and emerging risk, highlighting the need for lenders to adopt a more dynamic approach to affordability — one that looks beyond traditional risk indicators to build a richer understanding of consumer financial resilience.
In this blog, we will explore the major themes that were raised at the event, and what that means for affordability assessments in 2026 and beyond.
All insights and data shared in this blog are taken from our State of Affordability Report.
Consumer resilience remains strong – but pressure is building beneath the surface
Much of the discussion at Credit Week centred on a simple question: how resilient are UK consumers? TransUnion’s session aimed to address this head on.
Our research paints a nuanced picture of affordability. On the surface, several indicators remain positive. Net incomes have continued to grow, debt-to-income ratios remain significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, and many borrowers are managing rising debt balances without becoming overstretched.
However, the data suggests that resilience is increasingly uneven.
Consumer confidence has softened following recent inflationary pressures, savings behaviour is showing signs of strain, and a substantial proportion of consumers continue to operate with little or no financial buffer. Our analysis also found growing numbers of consumers experiencing delinquency and income shocks, despite headline affordability metrics remaining relatively stable.
For lenders, this creates a challenge: understanding not only who may be vulnerable today, but how changing circumstances could affect affordability in the future.
Income shocks are emerging as a critical risk signal
A major focus of our presentation was the importance of monitoring changes in consumer circumstances over time.
Our research found increasing levels of income volatility among UK consumers, with notable year-on-year growth in consumers experiencing significant reductions in income.
Yet perhaps the most interesting finding was that income loss alone does not automatically translate into financial distress.
Many consumers proved remarkably resilient following an income shock. The biggest differentiator was not the reduction in income itself, but the level of existing financial commitments consumers were carrying at the time. Consumers with higher payment-to-income ratios were significantly more likely to experience arrears following a shock than those with lower fixed obligations.
Hidden affordability pressure remains a growing consideration
With new Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) regulation on the horizon, it was no surprise that BNPL featured prominently in discussions throughout the event. A key area of focus was the role BNPL data can play in providing a more accurate and holistic view of consumer affordability.
Our research found that while most BNPL users show little additional risk, certain groups of frequent users carry repayment commitments that can have a meaningful impact on their overall affordability. As a result, excluding BNPL obligations from affordability assessments may lead to an incomplete view of a consumer's financial position.
As borrowing habits continue to evolve, these findings highlight the growing importance of incorporating a broader range of financial commitments into affordability assessments.
Uncertainty is a growing challenge for lenders
One of the most consistent themes throughout Credit Week was the growing complexity of risk.
Speakers at the event highlighted the increasing interconnectedness of economic, political and operational risks in the lending environment. A key message was the need for firms to prepare defined responses to predefined scenarios, reducing volatility in decision-making when market conditions deteriorate. The discussion also emphasised the growing importance of integrating credit and conduct considerations when managing risk.
This closely aligns with our own findings around affordability monitoring and the need to identify emerging customer vulnerability earlier and more effectively.
Regulatory reform is creating both opportunity and responsibility
Another significant topic was the future of regulation.
Sessions across the event explored the industry's transition towards a more outcomes-focused approach under Consumer Duty. Rather than relying heavily on prescriptive rules and disclosure requirements, the direction of travel points towards greater flexibility, accompanied by greater accountability for firms to demonstrate good customer outcomes.
The discussion also highlighted growing optimism around the role of AI and advanced analytics in helping firms better understand customer circumstances and improve decision making. At the same time, speakers emphasised that strong governance and transparency remain essential as decisioning models become more sophisticated.
Against this backdrop, rich affordability, income and behavioural data are becoming increasingly important tools for balancing growth, risk and consumer outcomes.
Download the insights
The conversations at Credit Week reinforced what our research continues to show: affordability isn't simply improving or worsening — it's becoming more nuanced. While many consumers remain resilient, changing incomes, evolving borrowing behaviours and reduced financial buffers are creating a more complex picture for lenders to navigate.
These themes are explored in more detail in our new State of Affordability Report which examines how financial resilience is evolving across the UK and what lenders can do to better identify emerging risk, support customers and drive sustainable growth.
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